Soviet Strategic Objectives

A. This estimate examines two interconnected questions:

1. Do Soviet leaders currently base their policies, programs, and activities on the belief that the USSR will continue to make significant gains towards achieving overall dominance in the world? Do they expect to achieve such a position within the next decade?

2. Have they started to believe, or will they soon believe, that aggressive actions on their part entail lower risks compared to before? Do they consider these risks to be sufficiently low to be acceptable to cautious yet ambitious individuals?

B. Within the Intelligence Community, there is agreement on some aspects related to these questions while disagreement exists on others. The areas of agreement are as follows:

1. The goals of Soviet global policy are extensive. Soviet leaders perceive an ongoing struggle between two major systems, in which theirs will ultimately triumph. This perception is reinforced by both defensive and expansionist tendencies rooted in Russia's history and amplified by the considerable growth of Soviet power and prestige since World War II. The USSR does not seek long-term equilibrium between the two systems in its foreign or military policies; rather, it aims for continuous enhancement of its own power and influence.

2. The Soviets view military power as a crucial instrument to achieve strategic objectives without resorting to war while engaging in multifaceted struggles.

3. The Soviets have not accepted the concept of mutual assured destruction, which implies that a certain level of force is adequate for deterrence. However, they recognize mutual deterrence as a current reality that is difficult to alter. Additionally, while attempting to surpass the US and being wary of lagging behind, they are reluctant to unilaterally adjust their military programs to promote strategic stability or to moderate them to avoid provoking US reactions.

4. The Soviets strive for advantages in their military forces. They persistently pursue a broad and active program to enhance their military capabilities in support of their political objectives.

5. The noteworthy aspect of these programs is not their recent acceleration but rather their consistent growth over the past two decades. This growth is expected to continue. The establishment of a recognized deterrent or the achievement of acknowledged strategic parity has not caused their efforts to wane. Soviet military doctrine emphasizes the need for capabilities to engage in, survive, and win a nuclear war.

6. Simultaneously, the Soviets are concerned about potentially falling behind in the qualitative military competition, further emphasizing the importance of their research and development endeavors.

7. During the struggle, they acknowledge weaknesses on their side, particularly stemming from economic and technological deficiencies, as well as conflicts with

   other nations. Despite these weaknesses, the Soviets remain determined to overcome them and maintain their position in the global arena.

   It is important to note that the excessive use of words such as fear, anxiety, worry, caution, and concern to describe the state of mind of Soviet leadership should not overshadow their unwavering determination and drive to prioritize strategic goals. The reader should not overlook the resolute nature of Soviet leadership amidst these expressions.

   Overall, the estimate reveals that Soviet leaders continue to pursue policies and programs aimed at achieving dominance in the world. They view military power as a crucial tool in advancing their strategic objectives and are committed to continuously enhancing their military capabilities. While recognizing the concept of mutual deterrence, they do not fully accept the idea of mutual assured destruction and remain reluctant to adjust their military programs to promote strategic stability. The Soviets are also mindful of potential weaknesses and strive to address them, particularly in terms of economic and technological limitations.

   This analysis highlights the ongoing and steady growth of Soviet military programs over the past two decades, with the expectation that this trend will persist. The Soviets are driven by their perception of a global struggle and their ambition to enhance their own power and influence. Despite potential risks, they believe in the necessity of aggressive actions and prioritize research and development efforts to stay ahead in the qualitative military competition.

   In conclusion, this estimate provides insights into the Soviet leadership's mindset, their goals for global dominance, and their strategic approach to military power.